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Impending Snap Parliamentary Election in France Could Affect NATO Commitments and Foreign Policy Shifts

President Emmanuel Macron’s call for a snap parliamentary election in France, with Marine Le Pen’s National Rally leading in polls, raises concerns about potential impacts on France’s NATO commitments and foreign policy direction, including support for Ukraine.

France’s commitments to NATO and its foreign policy direction may face turbulence due to an impending snap parliamentary election. President Emmanuel Macron has called for elections to be held on June 30th and July 7th, 2023, following unexpected political shifts. Recent polls, such as one from Ifop on June 24th, indicate a strong lead for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) with 36%, followed by the New Popular Front (NFP) at 29.5%, and Macron’s pro-European centrist party trailing at 20%.

The National Rally has set immigration and cost-of-living issues at the forefront of its campaign. Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old leader of the RN, declared readiness to govern and urged voters to support their law-and-order program, aiming to secure a majority. Macron’s call for the snap election came after his centrist party suffered significant losses to the RN during a European vote.

This political shift could impact France’s role and commitments within NATO, including its contributions to operations along the eastern flank with Russia and its support for Ukraine. Emmanuel Macron, a strong advocate for Ukraine’s NATO membership, has also promised to train recruits and send French Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets to Ukraine. The outcome of the upcoming election could redefine France’s foreign policy and its military commitments.

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